Enlightening Commentary

November’s Twenty Seven

Posted on December 1, 2013

CarnacIt’s that time of the month, so let’s take look back and see how our predictions panned out. Back on November 1st, we said: “Looking ahead to November, we’re going to forecast 33 (+/-3) homicides and a quieter 85 (+/-10) shot and wounded.”

Not too bad. We were over on one and under on the other with November tallying 27 homicides and an additional 111 shot and wounded. Despite the January like temps towards the end of the month, the lead kept flying. ‘A ‘for effort fellas.

The 27 homicides by the numbers:

  • 22 males
  • 5 females
  • 23 (85%) shot
  • 3 (11%) stabbed
  • 27 average age
  • 5 teenagers
  • 12 under age 25
  • 9 shot in the head
  • 11 shot in the torso
  • 17.2% shot-to-kill ratio
  • 0 police involved (yay.)
  • 17 different neighborhoods
  • 6 for Team Englewood
  • 1 double homicide

Looking ahead to December, we’re going to forecast 30 (+/-3) homicides and 90 (+/-10) shot and wounded. We’ll wrap up the year just shy of 440 total homicides and around 1,750 shot and wounded.


Keep it short and to the point. Name calling and similar stupidity will be deleted. If you insist on writing several paragraphs, start your own blog.

  1. helloworld December 2, 2013 at 11:34 am

    Call me crazy but I’m hoping the city goes past 2011 total. Not because I want to hear about any human beings being killed, but because I want rham and McCarthy to try and “crime is still down even though murders are technically not showing improvement” their way out of this one.

    Everyone knows we only put up over 500 last year because we got thattropical weather all year long that we were hohoping year and and year out for lol

    • W.H.Thompson December 2, 2013 at 11:43 am

      They’ll ignore all the other years because the % drop from 2012 makes for a good headline. Nearly all of 2012’s jump came from an 8 week span from mid Feb through mid April. March 2012 was summer like with most days over 60 and many 80+ which lead to 54 homicides vs a usual March tally in the upper 20s.

      Also, don’t forget that they’ll spend about $100 million on overtime this year just to keep things at a 2011 level.

      • Parker December 2, 2013 at 3:38 pm

        $100M for overtime…..how much cheaper would it be to actively hire more full-time cops so the staffing levels would be at appropriate levels and they could start a little closer to “par?”

        • snuggles December 3, 2013 at 2:07 pm

          This was tried by some alderman during the budget and ran into roadblocks due to “City Hall Accounting” – apparently $100 million in OT is cheaper than new cops. I guess.

  2. Confused December 2, 2013 at 2:10 pm

    Did you see this article on NBC? Murder rate down in Chicago to level of 1965? How can that be possible?


    • W.H.Thompson December 2, 2013 at 5:32 pm

      Sure did. It’s simple really, you just don’t count everything. There are nearly 30 homicides so far this year that haven’t counted against the CPD’s tally. Most notably are those homicides (er, police-involved homicides) committed by the CPD of which there have been 13 this year.

  3. aa December 2, 2013 at 3:08 pm

    i predict your predictions (for december) are far to conservative. in 2014 and beyond, your website will never be in danger of obsolescence.

  4. oblivious December 3, 2013 at 4:14 pm

    Why Americans are so scared of terrorists is beyond me. You should be far more fearful of your fellow citizens. This country is like a warzone, the rest of the developed world looks on and wonders how such a rich and prosperous nation has such a horrendous homicide rate.

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