Enlightening Commentary

September’s Forty

Posted on October 1, 2013

CarnacBack on September 1st, we said: “Looking ahead to September, we’re going to forecast 40 (+/-4) homicides and 195 (+/-15) shot and wounded.”

Now that September is in the books, the month tallied 40 homicides and an additional 154 shot and wounded. Like August, we were “dead” on for homicides, but slightly aggressive in our shot and wounded call.

The 40 homicides by the numbers:

  • 34 males
  • 6 females
  • 30 (75%) shot
  • 5 (12.5%) stabbed
  • 28 average age
  • 9 teenagers
  • 21 under age 25
  • 11 shot in the head
  • 16 shot in the torso
  • 16.3% shot-to-kill ratio
  • 1 police involved
  • 23 different neighborhoods
  • 8 killed on Team Englewood

Looking ahead to October, once again we’re going to forecast 40 (+/-4) homicides and a lower 145 (+/-10) shot and wounded. 

-WHT

Posted on Oct 1, 2013 at 12:45PM

Keep it short and to the point. Name calling and similar stupidity will be deleted. If you insist on writing several paragraphs, start your own blog.

  1. George October 1, 2013 at 1:55 pm

    excellent, informative site. question – in your shot and wounded totals, do you take into account woundings like that reported to have triggered the recent 13 shot incident? in your summary of the Fab 4 it seems like one of them indicated he had been shot, but didn’t report to the police

    • W.H.Thompson October 1, 2013 at 2:04 pm

      Good question. The 13-shot incident stemmed from a prior shooting that went unreported. We go by whatever is reported and since this one wasn’t (or wasn’t until much later) it hasn’t been included. We suspect there are a good number of unreported shootings each month, but we have no way of proving otherwise. Unfortunately this is not an exact science.

      • George October 1, 2013 at 3:19 pm

        thank you for the reply, and the question was just my own intellectual curiosity. While not an exact science, I am guessing that your stats are pretty accurate, and they are layed out in a very easy to read, informative and sarcastic “tongue in cheek” manner. I am guessing that Rahm and others wish you were not as accurate in either your reporting or forecasting. Please keep up the good work of informing those that want to know.

        • W.H.Thompson October 1, 2013 at 4:07 pm

          Thanks for the compliment. The homicides stats are exact. Shootings are likely within 0.5% of what’s reality. At last check we were only 7 off from the Chicago Tribune. At the time they had 1700 and we had 1707. We’d say that’s pretty good.

  2. ms. leroy goldberg October 1, 2013 at 4:21 pm

    What was the kill, wounded numbers for this past weekend?

    • W.H.Thompson October 1, 2013 at 4:29 pm

      1 dead. 15 wounded.

      • ms. leroy goldberg October 2, 2013 at 7:43 am

        Thank you.

  3. Parker October 3, 2013 at 8:24 am

    Hey Jackass – more accurate than a Chicago triggerman!

    Nice work, guys!

    Shot placement is just as important as spraying the entire area and hoping you hit a bullseye, whether on the basketball court or in a press conference. ;)

    • W.H.Thompson October 3, 2013 at 8:26 am

      Nice. Thanks.

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